E Pili Ana ke Kai ( The Climbing of the Sea)

 Sea level rise is significant to the economy, environment, and quality of life of many coastal regions and communities; this is particularly true in the islands of Hawaii.  Studying and uncovering the multi-decadal trends in sea level change is a difficult but necessary issue in order to prepare Hawaii’s people for the changes that are very likely to occur in the foreseeable future.  The islands of Hawaii are located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and of course 100% of all islands are completely surrounded by and susceptible to the patterns of this ocean.  Over the past century the global sea level average has increased from ~1-2mm/yr to 3+ mm/yr (Figure 1). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) projected that sea level would reach .18 to .59 m above present levels, but these predictions did not include ice flow dynamics (calving).  Rahmstorf (2007) approximated sea level to reach upwards of 1.4 meters with the inclusion of ice flow factors. 

The increase in snow and ice melt accounts for three quarters of total sea levels rise globally .  The glaciers in  Greenland are increasing their flow anywhere from 30 to 210% faster than there were flowing 10 years ago. The amount of sea ice released into the southern sea has increased from 90km3 or 5 mi.³ in 1996 to 224km3 over 90 mi.³ in 2005, a total increase of 250 percent (BBC News, 2006). In total, Greenland's contribution to average over rise is increase from 0.09 inches per decade in 1996 0.2 inches per decade in 2005. This translates to 20% to 38% of the total observed yearly global sea level rise (Rignot, 2006). In western Antarctica the picture is even more week, ice loss has increased about 59% of early 21st-century approaching numbers of nearly 132,000,000,000 metric tons per year.  The thermal warming of the ocean’s surface counts for the remaining quarter of sea level factors and increases with the amount of greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere

In the past century only has already experienced a significant increase in sea level rise and the effects are already noticeable in locations across the island chain. Figure 2 is a visual representation of the sea level trend holy over the last century. This clearly illustrates in a five year moving average the increase in sea level over time. Since 1910, sea level has increase over 0.5 feet and continues to rise at an approximate rate of 0.1 feet per decade. If sea level rise continues to increase on this current path, the projected possibility of a 1 m rise by 2100 may become a very grim reality.

As the ocean continues to rise, flooding of coastal low-lying areas increases in conjunction with this increase in tide level. Numerous reports of incidents involving sea level rise affecting coastal communities of the islands have already been reported across the state.  Some coastal roadways are suffering from temporary closures due to high wave action washing water and sediment across roadways. 

Another serious issue that plagues the future of Hawaii in light of the rising sea level is escalating coastal erosion and loss beaches and coastal lands due to an increase in wave activity as well as damage from flooding and storm surge.  The unpredictability of events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, high winds, and flash floods make it nearly impossible to predict impacts forgiving regions, so it is necessary to prepare for the worst conditions and events possible to occur. This is an extremely touchy issue for the islands of late due to the extreme value placed on coastal regions as well as the beaches and tourist attractions that surround the coastlines of the islands. The tourism industry accounts for more than 50% of all revenue and jobs for the islands, the heart and soul of this tourism industry has always been Hawaii’s coastline and beaches. In order to properly assess the impacts of the rising sea level, it is necessary to investigate the severity of possibilities for future changes for coastal regions across the state.